Intermodal demand grows as over-the-road costs climb

Market overview

U.S. intermodal demand continues to strengthen, with volumes consistently tracking above the five-year average. Domestic U.S. intermodal volumes remained strong through September and averaged roughly 300,000 units per week in early October—up 12.6% year over year (y/y).

Demand then increased sharply over the last two weeks of October. Year to date, North American intermodal volume is running about 4.6% above 2025.

One contributor is rising over-the-road transportation costs, making intermodal an attractive option. C.H. Robinson continues to forecast a significant increase in truckload spot rates through 2026, driven by tightened capacity and higher carrier operating costs.

Intermodal peak season

Intermodal peak season is now in full swing. One of the last two weeks of October is likely to rank among the highest outbound demand periods of the season.

Union Pacific has identified several capacity-constrained markets and is actively managing container reservations, giving priority to committed contract customers.

Shippers seeking committed capacity out of California; Texas; Salt Lake City, Utah; and Chicago should expect limited availability. In the near term, intermodal freight originating in these markets will likely face higher rates and tighter capacity.

A notable development this peak season is conditions in the Northeast. Tighter truckload capacity has accelerated intermodal adoption, particularly on lanes between 550 and 1,500 miles, and freight that shifted to truckload during softer market conditions is increasingly returning to rail.

This trend is most pronounced on Chicago–Northeast, Memphis–Northeast, and Atlanta–Northeast corridors. As a result, several markets are experiencing capacity constraints and service delays. Rail providers are actively repositioning equipment and adding chassis to improve network fluidity.

Transactional shippers should expect increased pricing and potentially longer transit times in key markets, including:

• New York and New Jersey
• Baltimore, Maryland
• Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
• Toledo, Ohio
• Chicago
• Charlotte, North Carolina
• Memphis, Tennessee
• Atlanta

Despite these headwinds, intermodal continues to deliver meaningful savings compared with truckload on most lanes, and adoption is growing as shippers seek to diversify their transportation strategies and improve network efficiency.

Spot market dynamics

While intermodal spot pricing remains competitive, upward pressure is building, particularly in high-utilization markets. Intermodal spot rates are approximately 4.3% higher year over year, net of fuel.

Still, truckload pricing continues to rise faster than intermodal, widening rail’s cost advantage across many domestic lanes. As trucking capacity tightens through year end, this gap is expected to continue favoring intermodal.

Railroads are expected to begin implementing larger rate increases in Q1 2027. Shippers with enough volume to secure committed rail pricing should evaluate opportunities to lock in capacity now and improve cost predictability.

Fuel cost impact

The U.S. average price for on-highway diesel is up 70% y/y. Fuel continues to impact truckload economics and strengthen intermodal’s cost advantage on long-haul freight. Motor carriers are quickly adjusting pricing to reflect higher fuel expenses, further widening the gap in intermodal’s favor.

Fuel surcharge programs tied to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) index are adjusting accordingly, with one important distinction:

• Intermodal fuel surcharges are based on a percentage of the linehaul rate.
• Truckload fuel surcharges are generally calculated on a per-mile basis.

Applying truckload fuel methodologies to intermodal shipments can unnecessarily increase transportation costs. Shippers that align their fuel surcharge programs with intermodal pricing structures are better positioned to protect savings in a high-fuel-cost environment.

Intermodal pricing outlook and bid strategy considerations

Railroads are expected to continue raising contract pricing as demand remains elevated in many markets and network capacity tightens heading into 2027. Early engagement with your logistics provider can improve access to committed capacity and maximize cost savings and pricing stability.

Shippers are advised to:

• Assess freight compatibility with rail, including blocking, bracing, and handling requirements.
• Identify lanes where additional transit time is acceptable.
• Consider where loading and receiving windows, shipment scheduling, and driver-assist requirements could be flexible.
• Evaluate total landed cost rather than focusing solely on linehaul rates.
• Implement blended trucking-rail strategies.

Service performance

Class I railroads continue to deliver strong operational performance, supported by:

• Reliable train speeds
• Reduced locomotive idle time
• Improved network fluidity

Despite these operational gains, overall network capacity is tightening. Localized delays tied to equipment positioning are increasing, particularly in markets seeing rapid demand growth, and chassis and container repositioning remain critical as regional imbalances emerge.

Heading into 2027, proactive planning and early collaboration with intermodal logistics providers will be essential to securing capacity, managing costs, and maintaining service across increasingly constrained networks.

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