U.S. retail freight from Asia still working through disruptions

Ocean peak season came early, but impact of Asia backlogs is lingering

U.S. retailers and retail suppliers pulled forward holiday imports this year to get ahead of tariff uncertainty and Panama Canal restrictions. On top of regular replenishment cycles, this helped create an earlier ocean-freight peak.

Following an exceptionally strong September and a series of typhoons that backed up containers at some of China’s largest ports and interrupted ocean schedules, retail freight is still working its way through an already busy network.

What’s happening at ports

• U.S. containerized imports reached 2.55 million TEUs in September, the highest September volume on record.
• The Port of Los Angeles handled more than 1.04 million TEUs in September, setting an all-time throughput record, and projected that October’s numbers would add up to 900,000.
• Overall import demand and container volumes may begin easing during November. But delayed cargo and increased dwell time for containers at Southern California ports could keep peak-like operating conditions going even as underlying demand declines.

What's delaying retail freight

• Consecutive typhoons shut down ports in Asia, created container backlogs and led to carriers omitting port calls, rolling cargo, changing vessel allocations, and moving bookings from one sailing or service to another.
• Backlogs at Chinese ports of origin have been improving in recent weeks. The bigger issue now is schedule reliability and vessel bunching as cargo arrives. These concentrated arrivals which could lead to delays over the next few weeks.
• At the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, congestion remains severe, mainly due to not enough railcars for moving cargo inland. For critical freight, some shippers are turning to transloading and trucks.
• Recovery is expected to be gradual over the next two to three weeks, assuming no additional disruptions occur.

Looking ahead

The ocean-freight demand surge may be winding down before the operational effects do.

• Ongoing delays may affect last-minute holiday freight, diverting some to alternate routes or air freight.
• Existing congestion could keep port activity elevated into December.
• If that happens, the network might have less time to normalize before the pre-Chinese New Year shipping period begins around the end of 2026.

What retail shippers can do

• Identify priority shipments that may lead to lost sales or stockouts, and evaluate whether expedited services are worth the added cost.
• Look upstream and evaluate what freight is already on the water and what can be diverted. For “hot” shipments, consider alternate ports such as the Port of Oakland and the Pacific Northwest, or even air freight.
• For critical freight already moving, evaluate options for transloading upon arrive and trucking it to destination where it’s operationally and commercially viable.
• Plan beyond November in case port congestion and rail delays persist.
• Keep transportation plans flexible and stay in touch with your logistics provider so you can react nimbly to changing conditions.

For more on conditions retailers and retail suppliers can expect for the U.S. holiday season ahead, see the Ocean Shipping, Truckload and Less than Truckload sections of this report.

Labor disruption could create further delays

A labor union that serves the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is negotiating its contract and as pushed back its strike deadline twice. If a strike still occurs, the direct impact would depend on where work stops and which other workers join the striking union.

Retailers and retail suppliers should take into account that:

• Even a temporary terminal closure or reduction in productivity can delay vessel berthing and subsequent vessel rotations. Each day of work stoppage can produce a week of delay. 
• Delays can propagate back through the ocean network, affecting transshipment connections and potentially vessels that have not yet departed their origins.  
• Retailers with time-sensitive inventory should closely monitor vessel schedules, container availability, and inland connections if labor disruption occurs. 

When Americans move less, retail spending declines

Fewer people are moving and the housing market is losing momentum on the heels of higher home prices and interest rates. Accordingly, related expenses drop.

How housing impacts consumer spending

• First-year spending: New homes trigger an increase in household set-up purchasing. On average, a new homeowner spends over $8,500 during their first year of ownership on furnishings, appliances, and home goods. 
• Wealth effect: Rising home values increase net worth, improving household financial security and perceptions. Secure perceptions drive discretionary spending. 
• Equity extraction: Higher home equity allows cash-out refinancing and home equity lines of credit, unlocking cash that flows into retail purchasing and home improvements. 

Why housing-related spending is down right now

• The U.S. housing market weakened sharply in September, when the Pending Home Sales Index hit the lowest reading in its 25-year history, according to the National Association of Realtors. Weekly readings in October indicate pending sales continued to drop.
• Spiking mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war—and intensifying in the past two months—have priced millions of aspiring buyers out of the market. A one-point increase in interest rates from 6% to 7% eliminated roughly 6 million Americans from being able to afford the monthly payment on a median-priced home with a 10% down payment. 
• The median price of an existing single-family home as of September was $422,700, up 1.2% from a year earlier.
• Home building fell more than 5% in September compared to August. It is down more than 7% versus last year. 

What can retailers and retail suppliers do?

• Watch housing activity as a leading demand signal. Home sales, housing starts, and mortgage rates can help retailers anticipate changes in housing-sensitive categories.
• Expect softer demand for categories such as furniture, appliances, and home-improvement products while home sales and moves remain depressed.
• Plan inventory conservatively. Slower housing turnover will increase the risk of excess inventory and unnecessary transportation and storage costs.
• Right-size last-mile networks. Lower housing turnover can reduce demand for bulky home deliveries, making it important to closely match delivery capacity with changing order volumes.

Shrinkflation: How it might affect your logistics 

Not long ago, a powdered drink maker went from six to four pouches per package without reducing its price. It’s an example of the practice known as shrinkflation—cutting the size of a product while keeping the price nearly the same. 

Behind the trend: Same price, less product

• Shrinkflation is a decades-old phenomenon. It has affected roughly 33% of U.S. grocery items since 2019 but become more pronounced since 2020. 
• Some of the most common categories where it’s used include paper products, especially paper towels and toilet paper; cereal; coffee; laundry detergent; and toothpaste. 
• Many food manufacturers decrease the amount of product while keeping the front of the packaging the same size. Cognitive scientists call this “unit bias,” or the tendency to treat identical-looking packages as containing identical amounts of product. 
• A study by Marketing Science states that sales typically increase 6% after a product is downsized. Because consumers remain loyal to the product and need to replenish it more often, it has made shrinkflation a standard strategy for margin-preservation during periods of rising costs. 

What shrinkflation means for retail shipping

Size matters, but it’s not everything. Retailers mostly order by quantity rather than by weight, so they should take shrinkflation and more frequent replenishment into account in their freight planning.

New food traceability rules to increase focus on supply-chain data

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has pushed enforcement of its new food traceability rules to July 2028. Businesses handling certain higher-risk foods would be required to maintain more detailed records as products move through the supply chain. If the policy is finalized, smaller restaurants would see exemptions.

What's changing in food traceability

• The rule applies to businesses that manufacture, process, pack, or hold foods on the FDA's Food Traceability List, including domestic and foreign companies producing food for U.S. consumption.
• Companies must maintain data for specific supply-chain stops and stages, so-called “critical tracking events” including harvesting, packing, shipping, and receiving.
• Covered foods are assigned a traceability lot code at specified points, allowing required information to remain linked to each lot as it moves through the supply chain.
• Establishments that sell directly to consumers and whose sales average no more than $250,000 would be exempt from the rule.

The goal is to help the FDA identify and remove potentially contaminated foods from the market faster. Required records must generally be made available to the FDA within 24 hours of a request.

How the new food-traceability rules impact logistics

• Transportation is part of the traceability chain. Shipping and receiving are critical tracking events under the rule.
• Data needs to move with the product. Shippers should coordinate with suppliers, receivers, and logistics providers so required information stays connected to shipments.
• Use the extension to prepare, not to postpone. FDA recommends working with supply chain partners now to understand their recordkeeping systems.

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