Cross-border capacity shifts as regional pressures build

U.S.–Mexico

Trade growth is creating different capacity conditions by corridor

Mexico's trade accelerated in September (the latest data available), with exports increasing 37.9% year over year (y/y) and imports increasing 33.1% across industrial categories. Particularly strong growth in industrial imports, alongside accelerating manufacturing exports, indicates strong export activity for the coming months.

Export growth continues to extend beyond automotive into electronics, electrical equipment, computers, and other advanced manufacturing, affecting manufacturing states including Nuevo León; Coahuila; Chihuahua; Sonora; and Baja, California.

But national export growth is not affecting every Mexican region or border crossing equally. Manufacturing origin, equipment positioning, seasonal demand, and U.S. truck availability after the border can produce different conditions by gateway.

Recent freight patterns show significantly more northbound than southbound freight for northern Mexico, consistent with the region’s concentration of export-oriented manufacturing. Central Mexico shows similar directional imbalance. When carriers lack regular return freight, it can affect rates and carrier selectivity on specific northbound lanes when demand rises.

North-central Mexico, the Bajío, is developing differently, with more balanced flows between northbound and southbound freight. This does not imply excess trucking capacity or falling rates in this region.

Manufacturers there are also importing substantial volumes of parts and intermediate goods for production of exports. Shipment timing and needs for specific equipment, carrier certifications, or other requirements still matter for securing capacity.

Capacity conditions change again after freight crosses the border

Once freight crosses the border, conditions diverge further. Southern Arizona is under greater pressure as Mexican produce shipping begins to build through the Nogales/Tucson area. Agricultural freight volumes may compete with northbound manufacturing freight from Sonora for available U.S. trucks, tightening as the season develops.

As noted in the Truckload section of this report, capacity in Southern California is also tighter due to higher volumes of ocean freight from Asia. Thus, northbound manufacturing freight from Baja, California, crossing through Tijuana/San Diego, may face greater pricing and service variability, particularly on short lead times.

Laredo, Texas, continues to receive significant freight from northeastern Mexico, though recent conditions indicate that truck availability on the U.S. side has improved. The largest Mexico-U.S. export corridor is therefore not necessarily the tightest transportation market right now.

The El Paso, Texas, crossing is comparatively constrained as Chihuahua contributes to Mexico's growth in computers, communications equipment, and advanced manufacturing exports. Continued demand could make the corridor more prone to peaks and short lead times, although recent conditions do not indicate sustained tightening.

Available equipment does not always mean usable capacity

Carriers continue to face higher costs for fuel, insurance, maintenance, labor, and financing and increasingly favor contract freight that is predictable and limits the need to reposition trucks and trailers.

Security and border factors also affect usable capacity. Carriers continue to point to increased U.S. scrutiny as limiting the drivers willing to provide direct cross-border service.

Inside Mexico, security conditions can influence which corridors carriers will serve, while automotive, tech, pharmaceutical, and food freight may require additional certifications, security controls, equipment, and item-level visibility capabilities. As a result, equipment present in a region may not be qualified or willing to move a specific shipment.

October 26 truckers strike

A nationwide truckers’ strike on October 26, 2026, spread across 19 Mexican states. The most significant disruptions occurred around Mexico City on the Mexico-Pachuca, Mexico-Queretaro, and Mexico-Puebla highways, as well as Chamapa-Lecheria and Arco Norte.

The protests caused localized congestion and transit delays but did not generate a broad shutdown of Mexico’s freight network.

U.S.–Canada

Market imbalance is pushing up rates and route-guide failure

As shippers adjust to the current tariff environment, southbound freight demand from Canada to the United States continues to exceed northbound opportunities for carriers. This requires carriers to reposition equipment or accept less desirable freight to keep their networks moving efficiently.

Combined with higher diesel fuel prices, this imbalance is contributing to higher southbound rates for shippers. While higher rates may suggest improving economics for carriers, much of the increase is being absorbed by rising operating costs rather than translating directly into stronger margins.

Carriers are also declining more freight. C.H. Robinson’s research with MIT shows the impact to pricing that occurs as shippers go deeper in their route guide to find someone to move their freight. Shippers are also experiencing increased route-guide failure, pushing more freight into the spot market, where pricing can be more volatile.

Offering carriers more round-trip efficiency is increasingly important. Freight that helps carriers balance their networks, provides predictable volume, or offers consistent schedules may be better positioned to secure reliable capacity and competitive pricing.

Immigration challenge could extend southbound capacity tightness into 2027

With about 85% of U.S.-Canada cross-border freight in either direction handled by Canadian carriers, driver availability is emerging as another potential constraint on cross-border trucking capacity.

Winter already tends to tighten the driver pool, and changes to Canadian immigration pathways are adding uncertainty for carriers that rely on international drivers. Challenges renewing work permits or securing permanent residency could make it more difficult for some fleets to maintain existing driver counts.

The combination of seasonal driver dropout and a potentially smaller qualified labor pool could extend current southbound capacity constraints into 2027.

If driver availability tightens while cross-border demand remains steady, carriers may become increasingly selective about the freight they accept, reinforcing the importance of shippers planning their capacity early and working with their logistics provider to smooth out their volumes and shipping schedules.

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